Who pairs with whom? — a matching simulation

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Two groups live in a city. People form partnerships with those nearby. How much of the observed sorting is driven by where people live versus who they prefer?

Group A
Group B
Segregation 50%
Spatial clustering of groups
In-group preference 0% more likely
How much more likely to pick same group
Distance sensitivity 74% more likely
How much more likely to match someone half as far
What this means for research

Observed ethnic endogamy doesn't tell you what people prefer — it tells you who they paired with given who was around. In Swedish register data, residential proximity explains 20–40% of same-group partnering for non-Western groups, and ignoring it overstates endogamy for the most segregated groups while understating it for the most integrated. Studying social boundaries requires modelling the partner market itself: who is actually available, in a municipality, a workplace, a school. Without that, we risk reading geography as preference and mistaking opportunity structure for taste.

Based on
However Far Away? The Spatial Contingencies of Assortative Mating
Jesper Lindmarker & Benjamin F. Jarvis · Preprint, SocArXiv. View preprint →